目前在对稻瘟病测报方法的研究中,以中、短期一类的方法报道较多,而有关长期预测的介绍则甚少。本文是根据病害长期预测的特点,以定性预报为主要目标,探讨利用前期气温因子,采用概率平均法来对连作晚稻后期穗瘟的流行程度进行长期的预测。所用材科为我省镇海县病虫观测站1955～ At present, there are more reports about the method of rice blast detection in the medium and short term, while there are few reports on the long-term prediction. Based on the characteristics of long-term disease prediction, qualitative prediction is the main objective of this paper. The prediction of the prevalence of panicle blast in the late stage of late rice is predicted by using the probability average method. The materials used for the province of Zhenhai County pest station 1955 ~