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目的应用灰色模型预测哈尔滨市乳腺癌死亡趋势,为乳腺癌防治提供科学依据。方法 2001-2010年乳腺癌死亡数据来自肿瘤和慢性非传染性疾病登记报告,利用GM(1,1)模型外推预测2011年和2012年乳腺癌死亡趋势。结果 2001-2010年哈尔滨市市区乳腺癌死亡率呈上升趋势,2011年和2012年乳腺癌死亡率估计值分别为13.47039/10万和13.998199/10万,预测精度为优。结论灰色模型可应用于哈尔滨市乳腺癌死亡率趋势预测,拟合效果理想。
Objective To use grey model to predict the death trend of breast cancer in Harbin, and provide scientific basis for prevention and treatment of breast cancer. METHODS: Breast cancer death data from 2001 to 2010 were derived from the Register of Tumors and Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases. The GM (1,1) model was extrapolated to predict breast cancer deaths in 2011 and 2012. Results The mortality rate of breast cancer in urban areas of Harbin City showed an upward trend from 2001 to 2010. The breast cancer mortality rates in 2011 and 2012 were estimated to be 13.47039/100,000 and 13.998199/100,000 respectively, and the prediction accuracy was excellent. Conclusion The grey model can be applied to the prediction of breast cancer mortality in Harbin, and the fitting effect is ideal.