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以中国的渤海湾和黄土高原等两大苹果主产区为例,运用超越对数随机前沿生产函数模型,分析了1992—2012年以气温、降水量和日照时数等指标衡量的气候变化对苹果单产及单产增长的贡献。结果表明:气温升高、降水量减少和日照时数减少均有利于苹果单产增加,气温每升高1℃,单产将增加2.38%~2.89%;降水量每减少10mm,单产将增加2.07%~5.43%;日照时数每减少10h,单产将增加1.01%~1.33%;气候因素主要通过与地区的交互作用影响苹果单产,降水量和日照时数对两地区苹果单产影响为负,气温对单产的影响为正,且气候因素对黄土高原区比对环渤海地区的影响力度更强。不同因素对苹果单产增长的贡献具有差异,气候因子贡献率为-12.79%,主要投入要素贡献率为21%,TFP增长的贡献达到32.98%。
Taking the two main producing areas of apple such as Bohai Bay and Loess Plateau in China as an example, by using the function of transcendental logarithm stochastic frontier production function, this paper analyzes the change of climate change measured by indicators of temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours from 1992 to 2012 Apple yield and yield growth contribution. The results showed that: the increase of temperature, the decrease of precipitation and the decrease of sunshine hours were all conducive to the increase of apple yield. When the temperature was increased by 1 ℃, the yield would increase by 2.38% -2.89%; when the precipitation decreased by 10mm, the yield would increase by 2.07% 5.43% respectively. When the sunshine duration decreased by 10h, the yield per unit area increased by 1.01% -1.33%. The climatic factors mainly affected the apple yield through the interaction with the area. The precipitation and sunshine hours had negative effect on the yield per unit area of apple. Is positive, and climatic factors have a stronger impact on the Loess Plateau than on the Bohai Rim. The contribution of different factors to the growth of apple yield is different. The contribution rate of climate factor is -12.79%, the contribution rate of main input elements is 21% and the contribution of TFP growth is 32.98%.