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假臭草原产南美洲,上世纪80年代首次记载传入中国,是潜在的恶性杂草.为提供其在中国分布区的预测资料,采用397个采集数据和已有的146个分布点数据,利用生态位模型(GARP)和Domain模型对分布区进行预测分析,并通过AUC与MaxKappa进行模型评价.结果显示:近十年,假臭草入侵记录增多,入侵扩散加剧;太阳辐射、水汽压、极端高温、霜日频率和水流方向对假臭草的分布限制较小,雨日频率、坡向、坡度、海拔、年降水、年均温、地形指数和极端低温等8个环境因子对其分布影响显著;入侵的主要植被类型是农田、灌木或草类覆盖嵌合区,常绿、落叶灌木地带,栽培植被及相关联地带等.模型评价表明两种模型预测能力为较好及以上,预测结果显示:假臭草在西藏(除东南小块区域)、新疆、青海、内蒙古、宁夏,陕西和山西北部地区,黑龙江、吉林、辽宁(除辽东半岛小块区域)是不宜生长区;最易入侵广东、广西、海南等地区,其中华中部分省份、华北平原为适生区,还未见有假臭草入侵的报道,相关部门应引起重视,严防入侵.
Pseudo stink grass originating in South America, the first recorded in the 1980s was introduced into China, is potentially a vicious weed. To provide its forecast data in the distribution of China, the use of 397 collected data and the existing 146 distribution point data, The distributions were predicted by GARP and Domain model, and the model was evaluated by AUC and MaxKappa. The results showed that in the past ten years, the invasion of Pseudobagrus sorduiforme increased and the invasion spread increased. The solar radiation, vapor pressure, Extremely high temperature, frost-day frequency and water flow direction of the distribution of pseudo-stink grass limited small rainy day frequency, aspect, slope, elevation, annual precipitation, annual average temperature, topography index and extreme low temperature distribution of eight environmental factors The main types of intrusion are farmland, shrub or grass covered chimeric areas, evergreen and deciduous shrublands, cultivated vegetation and associated belts, etc. The model evaluation shows that the predictive ability of the two models is good and above, and the predicted The results showed that the fake stinkbugs were mainly distributed in Tibet (excluding the southeast small area), Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi and northern Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning (except Liaodong Peninsula small area) Not growing area; most likely to invade areas of Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, where some provinces in Central China, North China Plain is a suitable area, has not been reported catarium invasion, the relevant departments should pay attention to prevent invasion.