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国际金融危机以来美国的货币-物价与货币-汇率运行明显不符合经济学常理,均出现严重背离。研究显示,美国货币-物价背离的根本原因在于量化宽松货币政策的内生缺陷和持续恶化的金融生态,导致美联储投放的流动性被囤积、空转和外溢,无法抬升通胀水平。美国货币-汇率运行背离的主要原因在于美国对外债务扩张形成的美元需求和打压欧元导致的欧元贬值。美国货币-物价运行的背离说明,如果缺乏导流机制,再宽松的货币政策也无法实现政策目标,因此,我们有理由认为,附带导流机制的中国定向宽松货币政策优于美国的量化宽松货币政策。美国货币-汇率运行的背离说明,美元仍然是美国的核心利益,美国会采用常规和非常规的措施,以维持美元的全球霸权地位。
Since the international financial crisis, the United States currency - price and currency - the exchange rate operation is obviously inconsistent with the economics of science, are facing a serious departure. The study shows that the fundamental reason for the departure of the US currency-price lies in the endogenous defects of quantitative easing monetary policy and the deteriorating financial ecology, which has led to the hoarding, idling and spillover of the Fed’s liquidity and the inability to raise inflation. The main reason for the departure of the U.S. currency - exchange rate operation is the demand for the U.S. dollar due to the expansion of U.S. external debt and the depreciation of the euro caused by the euro. The divergence between the U.S. currency and the price movement shows that without the diversion mechanism and the loose monetary policy can not achieve the policy objective, we have reason to think that the China’s targeted easing monetary policy with a diversion mechanism is superior to the quantitative easing currency policy. The divergence between the U.S. currency and the exchange rate operation shows that the U.S. dollar remains the core U.S. interest and the United States will adopt conventional and unconventional measures to maintain its global hegemony over the U.S. dollar.