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在中国传统家庭制度的影响下,新生代流动人口对未来居留地点的选择受到父辈的影响。文章基于反事实框架,发现父代流迁经历与子代居留意愿存在因果关系。考察父代对子代居留意愿的影响机制,发现父代的流迁经历除了具有直接的影响,还将通过与文化资本、社会资本等家庭禀赋产生的交互作用影响子代的居留意愿。父代流迁经历对子代居留意愿的影响机制存在性别差异,母亲的流迁经历会产生直接影响,父亲流迁经历与社会资本的交互效应会产生显著影响。在人们做出居留决策时,社会因素比经济因素产生的影响更为明显。研究表明,流动人口的居留意愿会受到家庭内部的代际影响,父代的流迁行为将对子代的居留意愿产生影响,有助于未来子代实现“留城”行为。
Under the influence of the traditional Chinese family system, the choice of the place of future residence of the floating population of the new generation is influenced by the parents. Based on the counterfactual framework, the article finds that there is a causal relationship between the experience of the father’s relocation and the will of his offspring. In addition to having a direct influence on the migrant experience of the father generation, the influence of parental influence on the will to stay in the offspring is also examined. Through the interaction with family endowments such as cultural capital and social capital, it is found that the migrant parents’ will to influence their children will be affected. The influence mechanism of parental exile experience on the intention of residence of the offspring has the gender difference, the mother’s migratory experience will have a direct impact, and the father’s migratory experience and the social capital interaction effect will have a significant effect. When people make residence decision, social factors have more obvious influence than economic factors. The study shows that the will of migrants to stay will be affected by the intergenerational influence within the family. The relocation of the father will have an impact on the will of the offspring and help the future generations to achieve their “stay in the city.”