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由于虚拟发电厂中存在风电机组等出力波动的可再生分布式电源,为了量化风电机组出力不确定性对虚拟发电厂进行能量交易时的收益风险,在考虑了风电机组出力不确定性因素后,利用最差情景下的条件风险价值(WCVaR)方法构建了包含运行成本、售电收益和交互收益的虚拟发电厂能量市场的收益—风险模型,然后采用遗传算法对其进行求解,并通过算例分析了不同风险水平下的机组出力情况、交互收益和碳排放量,以及虚拟发电厂在不同风险水平下进行能量交易时的WCVaR,验证了所提出模型的正确性,为分析风电机组出力对虚拟发电厂的收益、风险和减碳的影响提供了理论支持。
In order to quantify the risk of return on the energy transaction of virtual power plants due to the uncertain output of wind turbine generators due to the fluctuating output power of wind turbines in the virtual power plants, after taking into account the uncertainties of output of wind turbine generators, Using the Worst Case Conditional Value-at-Value (WCVaR) method, a revenue-risk model of the energy market of a virtual power plant that includes operating costs, sales revenue and mutual benefits is constructed and then solved by genetic algorithm. This paper analyzes the output of units under different risk levels, mutual benefits and carbon emissions, and the WCVaR of virtual power plants under different risk levels to verify the correctness of the proposed model. In order to analyze the effect of wind turbine output on virtual The power plant benefits, risks and the impact of carbon reduction provide theoretical support.