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本文主要研究了20世纪80年代世界银行对华贷款对中国可持续发展的影响。利用世行贷款对经济发展的内生关系及相互作用,构建一个开放经济条件下,产出、投资、国际贸易和国际收支四个维度的联立方程模型,揭示世行贷款与影响经济增长的其他因素之间的数量关系。从分析结果上看,世界银行对中国贷款援助对中国经济增长是有利有弊的。积极影响主要体现在:有利于促进我国长期经济增长、帮助公共投资实现转型;对于扶贫、环保、交通、教育事业的发展、改革和转型都起到很大的积极作用。不利影响主要体现在:从长期来看,世行贷款的流入对我国的出口和资本品进口都有不利的影响;引入的项目贷款项目要求进口的设备不能很好地与中国的技术水平接轨;这种援助性贷款的性质使落后地区和落后领域增加了还款的压力,造成贫困、经济落后的压力增长。
This paper mainly studies the impact of World Bank loans to China on sustainable development in China in the 1980s. Using the endogenous relations and interactions between World Bank loans and economic development, this paper establishes a simultaneous equation model of four dimensions of output, investment, international trade and balance of payments under open economy, revealing that World Bank loans and economic growth The quantitative relationship between other factors. From the analysis results, the World Bank’s loan assistance to China has both advantages and disadvantages to China’s economic growth. The positive impact is mainly reflected in: it is conducive to promoting long-term economic growth in our country and helping public investment to make a transition; it plays a very significant and positive role in the development, reform and transformation of poverty alleviation, environmental protection, transportation and education. In the long run, the inflow of World Bank loans will have a negative impact on China’s exports and imports of capital goods. The introduction of a project loan program requires imported equipment that can not be properly aligned with China’s technological standards. The nature of this aid loan has put pressure on repayments in backward and backward areas, resulting in increased pressure of poverty and economic backwardness.