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近年来,在全国耕地面积持续减少的背景下,西北干旱区耕地呈扩张趋势,现有研究关注其自然因素驱动力,对人文因素驱动力,特别是灌溉设施和方式、政策、经济利益和市场导向等因素关注较少。选取干旱区典型绿洲——且末绿洲,采用最大似然法和人机交互式分类相结合的方法从1972,1990,2001,2011年影像中提取耕地信息,结合统计学方法分析且末绿洲耕地变化的时空趋势、耕地复种指数的动态变化;在充分考虑人口因素的前提下,增加灌溉设施和方式、政策、经济利益和市场导向等因素,探讨了绿洲耕地扩张的人文驱动力。研究结果表明:1970年以来,且末绿洲耕地面积时增时减,总体呈增长趋势;耕地复种指数波动上升;人口增长、灌溉设施和方式、政策、经济利益和市场等因素在不同阶段以不同方式影响着该绿洲耕地面积的扩张。政策、经济利益和市场因素是近10年绿洲耕地迅速扩张的主要驱动因素。
In recent years, arable land in the arid region of Northwest China has been expanding under the background of a continuous reduction in the cultivated land area in the country. Existing research focuses on the driving forces of its natural factors and on humanistic factors such as driving forces, especially irrigation facilities and methods, policies, economic interests and markets Orientation and other factors pay less attention. Arid Oasis, a typical oasis in the arid region, was selected to extract the cultivated land information from the images of 1972, 1990, 2001, and 2011 by using the method of maximum likelihood and interactive classification. Combining with the statistical analysis, The trend of space-time change and the dynamic change of cultivated land multivariate index; under the premise of taking population factor into full consideration, such factors as the irrigation facilities and methods, policies, economic interests and market orientation are also discussed to explore the humanistic driving force of oasis cultivated land expansion. The results show that the area of cultivated land in Qiemo Oasis has been increasing and decreasing since 1970, showing a general trend of increasing; the index of cultivated land multiplying fluctuates more and more; population growth, irrigation facilities and methods, policies, economic interests and market are different at different stages The way it affects the expansion of arable land in this oasis. Policy, economic interests and market factors are the main drivers of the rapid expansion of arable land in oases in the recent 10 years.