采用渤海及黄海北部后报 30 a最大冰厚样本序列 ,采用平稳二项随机过程模型和组合概率分析方法 ,统计得到了年最大冰厚概率分布 ,估计了模型参数 ,并推算了不同重现期的极值冰厚。推算结果表明 ,该模型较好地刻划了该海域年最大冰厚的概率特性 ,为渤海海域平台结构设计和可靠性分析提供了重要的荷载基础。 The 30-year-old maximum ice thickness sequence was reported after the Bohai Sea and the northern Yellow Sea. By using the stationary binomial stochastic process model and the combined probability analysis method, the annual maximum ice thickness probability distribution was obtained, the model parameters were estimated, The extreme ice thickness. The results show that the model can well characterize the maximum annual ice thickness in this area, which provides an important load foundation for the platform structure design and reliability analysis of the Bohai Sea.