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8月,多家机构下调了它们对全球经济增速的预期,全球经济滑向衰退的概率虽然仍较小,但已经在上升。其最终能否在复苏的道路上避免“脱轨”仍未可知,但金融市场已经体现出“危险的新阶段”1特征,体现为避险意愿高涨程度不断加
In August, several agencies downgraded their expectations of global economic growth. The probability of a global economy sliding into a recession, though still relatively small, has been rising. Whether it can eventually avoid “derailment” on the road to recovery is yet to be seen. However, the financial markets have embraced the “new phase of danger” characterized by a continual increase in the willingness to hedge risks