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本文在分析信贷行为对金融不稳定状况传导机制理论基础上,对信贷行为与金融稳定的关联性进行检验,构建了标准形式金融状况指数(FCI)和包含了金融机构贷款余额的两种中国金融状况指数(FCIL),并对二者对CPI的预测能力进行了比较分析。结果表明,世界范围内金融危机的发生与信贷行为不当有直接关联;FCIL包含更多未来宏观经济信息,可以更有效的预测通货膨胀压力。综合考虑两方面结果,中国央行在制定货币政策时应该从金融稳定出发,重视信贷行为作为重要中介目标对宏观金融稳定的溢出效应。
Based on the analysis of the theory of credit behavior on the mechanism of financial instability, this paper tests the correlation between credit behavior and financial stability, and constructs a standard form of financial status index (FCI) and two types of China Financial Condition index (FCIL), and compared their predictive ability of CPI. The results show that the occurrence of the global financial crisis is directly related to improper credit behavior. The FCIL contains more macroeconomic information in the future and can more effectively predict inflationary pressures. Taking both results into consideration, when setting monetary policy, China’s central bank should proceed from financial stability and attach importance to the spillover effect of credit behavior as an important intermediary target on macro-financial stability.