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由本刊编辑部主办、中国联合石油公司协办的石油市场预测研讨会不久前在京召开,会议着重就1994年国内外石油市场前景及今后如何加强油价预测等问题,进行了广泛的讨论。中国石油天然气总公司信息研究所副所长、本刊编委会副主任委员彭守义同志和中国联合石油公司常务副总裁安郁培先生主持了会议。国务院发展中心、外交部政策研究室、国家计委、国家经贸委、国家统计局、中国银行国际金融研究所、外经贸部国际贸研所、新华社、中国石化总公司、中国化工进出口总公司、中国石油天然气总公司、中国石油天然气销售公司、北京石油交易所、石油大学、北京大学和南开大学等单位的有关专家、领导到会并对上述问题发表了各自的意见。 与会代表一致呼吁,要切实重视和认真落实油价的预测工作。应在此次会议的基础上,尽快组织起一个精干的、相对固定的预测机构,深入研究石油市场信息和我国石油业的长期发展战略,为国家决策部门和各大石油公司提供决策依据。 关于国际石油市场,专家们认为,受世界经济复苏乏力的影响,预计1994年世界石油需求将呈低水平增长,而国际石油价格走势将取决于世界石油市场的供应量。虽然多数专家认为油价将保持疲软,但有的专家根据对油价变化规律的分析,认为1994年国际油价的总水平将高于1993?
The Oil Market Forecasting Seminar, organized by the editorial department of the Journal and co-organized by the United Oil Company of China, was held recently in Beijing. The conference focused on discussing the prospects of the domestic and foreign oil markets in 1994 and how to strengthen oil price forecasts in the future. Mr. Peng Shouyi, deputy director of the Institute of Information Research of China National Petroleum Corporation, and Mr. An Yupei, executive vice president of China United Petroleum Corporation, presided over the meeting. Development Center of the State Council, Policy Research Office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, State Planning Commission, State Economic and Trade Commission, National Bureau of Statistics, Institute of International Finance, Bank of China, Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, International Trade Research Institute, Xinhua News Agency, China National Petrochemical Corporation, China Chemical Import and Export Corporation Companies, China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Petroleum Corporation, Beijing Petroleum Exchange, Petroleum University, Peking University, Nankai University and other relevant experts and leaders attended the meeting and expressed their opinions on the above issues. Representatives at the conference unanimously appealed that they should earnestly and seriously implement the prediction of oil prices. On the basis of this meeting, a lean, relatively fixed forecasting organization should be organized as soon as possible to thoroughly study the oil market information and the long-term development strategy of China’s oil industry, and provide decision-making basis for the state decision-making departments and major oil companies. Regarding the international oil market, experts believe that due to the weak recovery of the world economy, it is expected that world oil demand will show a low level of growth in 1994, and the trend of international oil prices will depend on the supply of world oil markets. Although most experts believe that oil prices will remain weak, some experts believe that the overall level of international oil prices in 1994 will be higher than in 1993 based on an analysis of the law of changes in oil prices.