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利用1970～1994年华北地区仪器记录到的地震目录,通过层次模型,将该地区分为不同大小的单元。在每个单元中,由小震活动情况,通过G-R关系得到较大地震的活动情况;并根据震级和烈度之间的关系,得到未来50a不同地震烈度的发生概率。文中还将所得结果与历史地震活动情况以及第三代区划图进行对比研究。结果表明,由近代小震活动对地震危险性进行评估是可能的。
Using the catalog of earthquakes recorded by instruments in North China from 1970 to 1994, we divided the area into units of different sizes through a hierarchical model. In each unit, the activity of the larger earthquakes is obtained from the G-R relationship by the activity of small earthquakes; and the probability of occurrence of different earthquakes in the future 50 years is obtained according to the relationship between the magnitude and the intensity. The paper also compares the results with historical seismic activity and the third generation zoning map. The results show that it is possible to evaluate the seismic hazard by the recent earthquakes.