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本文以我国A股上市公司2003-2010年的数据为样本,研究了分析师现金流预测与应计质量之间的关系。研究发现:第一,分析师现金流预测提高了应计项目的透明度,抑制了管理层操纵应计项目的盈余管理,进而提高了应计质量;第二,分析师的影响力加强了其现金流预测对应计质量的积极影响,即影响力越大的分析师(最佳分析师或者来自顶级券商的分析师)的现金流预测越能够抑制管理层通过应计项目进行的盈余管理行为。本文的研究表明分析师发布现金流预测起到了信息监督的作用,弥补了外部监管机构信息匮乏的缺陷,扮演了改善上市公司应计质量的角色。
This paper takes the data of A-share listed companies in China from 2003 to 2010 as a sample to study the relationship between analyst’s cash flow forecast and accruals quality. The findings are as follows: First, analysts ’cash flow projections increase the transparency of accruals and discourage management from manipulating earnings management of accruals, thereby improving accruals. Second, analysts’ influence has strengthened their cash Flow predicts the positive effect of the quality of the corresponding measure, ie the more influential analysts (best analysts or analysts from the top brokers) predict the cash flows that more effectively dampen management’s earnings management behavior through accruals. The research in this paper shows that the forecast of cash flow released by analysts plays the role of information supervision, compensates for the shortcomings of lack of information in external regulatory agencies and plays a role in improving accrued quality of listed companies.