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“十一五”时期我国能源消费大部分源于六大高耗能行业,为实现2020年的节能减排目标,本文以六大高耗能行业为研究对象进行分析研究。采用基于Ghosh投入-产出模型的敏感性分析方法,以2007年对称投入-产出表为数据基础,研究了不同行业生产技术变化对高耗能行业CO2排放强度的影响。文章首先,论述了Ghosh与Leontief投入-产出模型的区别与联系,介绍了Ghosh模型的具体应用,夯实研究的理论基础;然后,通过敏感性分析发现:电力、热力生产和供应业技术系数变化对整体高耗能行业排放强度影响最为显著;大多数高耗能行业排放强度对本行业生产技术变化最为敏感。最后,将本文的研究结果与基于Leontief模型进行敏感性分析的结果进行对比与讨论,分析其异同的原因。
In the 11th Five-Year Plan period, most of China’s energy consumption comes from six high-energy-consuming industries. In order to achieve the goal of energy-saving and emission reduction in 2020, this paper analyzes and studies the six high-energy-consuming industries. Using the sensitivity analysis method based on the Ghosh input-output model and the 2007 symmetry input-output table as the data base, the effects of production technology changes in different industries on CO2 emission intensity in high energy-consuming industries were studied. Firstly, it discusses the difference and connection between Ghosh and Leontief’s input-output model, introduces the concrete application of Ghosh’s model and comprehends the theoretical basis of the research. Then, through sensitivity analysis, it finds that the technical factors of electricity, heat production and supply industry change Which has the most significant impact on the emission intensity of the overall high-energy-consuming industries; the emission intensity of most high-energy-consuming industries is most sensitive to the change of production technology in this industry. Finally, the results of this paper are compared with the results of sensitivity analysis based on the Leontief model, and the reasons for the similarities and differences are analyzed.