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商业企业对季节性商品的生产和经营,可以运用期望损益分析法来进行计算和分析。所谓期望损益分析法,就是根据市场上对商品的需求既具有不确定性,但构成某种机率分布的特点。通过对商品生产或购进可获利的最大期望值或最小期望损失的计算,来确定商品最佳生产量或购进量的一种预测分析方法。期望损益分析法的步骤:首先是利用有关销售资料计算出商品销售发生的概率。其次,计算各种生产(进货)方案与各种自然状态相结合下的条件收益或条件损失,再利用上述销售概率和条件收益(损失),计算出期望收益(损失)。然后进行比较,选择可获得最大收益或最小损失的方案作为最优决策方案。 (一)最佳期望利润的测算例如某食品厂在中秋节前夕制订月饼生产计划。假设果仁月饼每百个售价50元,成本价40元,
Commercial enterprises can use the expected profit and loss analysis method to calculate and analyze the production and operation of seasonal commodities. The so-called prospective profit and loss analysis method is based on the fact that the demand for commodities in the market is not only uncertain but also constitutes a certain probability distribution. A predictive analysis method for determining the optimal production volume or purchase volume of a commodity by calculating the maximum expected value or the minimum expected loss of the commodity production or purchase profitability. The steps of the expected profit and loss analysis method: First, use the relevant sales data to calculate the probability of the sales of goods. Second, calculate the conditional gains or conditional losses combined with various production (inventory) plans and various natural conditions, and then use the above-mentioned sales probability and conditional return (loss) to calculate the expected return (loss). Then compare and select the scheme that can obtain the maximum income or the minimum loss as the optimal decision-making scheme. (I) Measurement of the best expected profit For example, a food factory makes moon cake production plans on the eve of Mid-Autumn Festival. Assume that the price of nuts in moon cakes is 50 yuan for every 100 and the cost is 40 yuan.