运用新政治经济学的研究方法,以达龙·阿西莫格鲁和詹姆斯·罗宾逊为代表的一批新锐经济学家对“制度重要”这一新制度主义旧命题进行了深入的探索。他们运用精致的计量分析方法,将制度变量作为内生变量纳入到长期经济增长的模型之中,从而建立了制度与长期经济增长之间的因果关系。同时,将历史计量经济学和比较政治经济学的研究方法结合起来,他们发现包容性经济制度的发育成熟,是长期经济增长的制度性必要条件,而包容性政治制度与包容性经济制度有相辅相成之效。即便政治制度有一定的攫取性,但只要经济制度走向包容性,以使更多的人有机会分享经济成长的成果,从而激励更多的投资,那么威权型增长也是有可能的。可是,威权型增长多发生在后发国家赶超型发展的初期阶段,容易遭遇到“中等收入陷阱”。这种增长模式必须经过转型,尤其是国家治理模式的创新,才能进入一个可持续性发展的新阶段。 Using the research methods of new political economy, a group of cutting-edge economists represented by Darong Asimoglu and James Robinson explored the old proposition of “institutional importance” neo-institutionalism . Using sophisticated econometric methods, they incorporated institutional variables as endogenous variables into long-term economic growth models, thereby establishing a causal relationship between institutions and long-term economic growth. At the same time, combining historical econometrics and comparative political economy research methods, they found that the development of an inclusive economic system is a necessary and institutional condition for long-term economic growth, and the inclusive political system complements an inclusive economic system Effect. Even if the political system is somewhat seized, authoritarian growth is possible as long as the economic system is inclusive and gives more people the opportunity to share the fruits of economic growth and thus encourage more investment. However, authoritarian growth occurred in the early stages of catching-up development in the late-onset countries and easily met the “middle-income trap.” This mode of growth must be transformed, especially the innovation of the state governance model, to enter a new phase of sustainable development.