一、引言：出口波动和汇率分析工具的选择改革开放以来 ,我国的出口贸易曾经出现过较长时期的稳定增长。但近年来 ,出口增长速度却出现了剧烈波动 ,落入经济周期理论所描述的“增长循环”陷阱。这已引起国内经济界的广泛关注。遭遇东亚金融危机袭击的国际贸易格局 ,又对我国的? I. Introduction: The Choice of Export Volatility and Exchange Rate Analysis Tools Since the reform and opening up, China’s export trade has experienced a steady growth over a long period of time. However, the export growth rate has fluctuated violently in recent years and falls into the trap of “growth cycle” as described in the economic cycle theory. This has caused widespread concern in the domestic economy. Encounter the international trade pattern hit by the East Asian financial crisis, and to our country?