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本文以新凯恩斯主义菲利普斯曲线理论为基础,在对房价波动对物价波动影响的理论分析的基础上,基于2009年至2015年全国35个大中城市月度数据,构建面板门限模型,实证分析房价波动对物价波动的影响,并进一步分地区实证分析这种影响的地区差异,得出以下结论:房价波动对物价波动表现出非线性影响,在房价的温和增长阶段,房价波动对物价波动表现出较大的冲击,而进入高速增长阶段,这种冲击作用会明显减弱,这主要是由融资约束以及居民预防性储蓄和负收入效应导致,并且东部地区和中西部地区的影响作用差异明显,东部地区房价波动对物价波动的影响明显小于中西部地区。最后,本文在研究结论基础上提出了相关政策建议。
Based on the theory of New Keynesian Phillips Curve and based on the theoretical analysis of the influence of price fluctuation on price fluctuations, this paper constructs panel threshold model based on the monthly data of 35 cities in China from 2009 to 2015, The paper also concludes that: the fluctuation of housing price has a nonlinear effect on the price fluctuation, and in the moderate increase of house price, the fluctuation of house price shows the fluctuation of price. Larger impact, and into the high-speed growth stage, this impact will be significantly weakened, mainly due to financing constraints and residents preventive savings and negative income effects, and the eastern region and the central and western regions have a significant difference in the role of the East, The impact of regional housing price volatility on price volatility is significantly less than that in the central and western regions. Finally, based on the conclusion of the study, this paper puts forward the relevant policy recommendations.