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我国“十二五”期间铁路建设成绩斐然,“十三五”期间还将加大铁路建设力度。近期国务院通过了《中长期铁路网规划》,提出以铁路建设带动经济社会发展;李克强总理也在克强指数中通过铁路客运量的增加来反映宏观经济增长。但针对铁路建设与经济增长之间的动态关系问题,目前缺乏具体的定量关系研究。同时贵州近几年来经济增速居全国前三,铁路建设力度也较大。因此,本文以贵州省为例,采用向量自回归的方法,对其1995-2014年的铁路建设和地区生产总值的数据进行分析来研究铁路建设和经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明:铁路总里程数、铁路客运量、铁路货运量和铁路货运周转量的增加会对宏观经济的增长产生长期稳定的动态影响。因此,建议各地加大铁路建设力度,借鉴贵州经验,引导经济又好又快地增长。
During the period of “12th Five-Year Plan”, China’s railway construction has made outstanding achievements. During the “13th Five-Year Plan”, it will also step up its efforts in railway construction. Recently, the State Council passed the “Medium-and-Long-term Railway Network Planning”, proposing that the railway construction drive economic and social development. Premier Li Keqiang also reflected the macroeconomic growth through the increase of railway passenger volume in the Keqiang Index. However, for the dynamic relationship between railway construction and economic growth, there is no specific quantitative relationship study at present. At the same time, Guizhou’s economic growth in recent years ranks the top three in the country and the railway construction is also strong. Therefore, this paper takes Guizhou Province as an example, uses vector autoregressive method to analyze the data of railway construction and GDP from 1995 to 2014 to study the dynamic relationship between railway construction and economic growth. The results show that the increase of total railway mileage, railway passenger traffic, railway freight traffic and railway freight traffic will have a long-term and stable dynamic impact on the growth of the macroeconomy. Therefore, it is recommended that all localities should increase their efforts in railway construction and learn from Guizhou’s experience to guide the economy to grow soundly and rapidly.