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目的探讨新疆乌鲁木齐县麻类疫苗接种的时间趋势,为疫苗分配管理提供参考依据。方法采用Spss 21.0软件进行统计学分析,用时间序列分析方法进行季节分解和模型建立,检验水准α=0.05,P<0.05时认为模型无效。结果2009─2014年乌鲁木齐县麻类疫苗第一剂次与年份呈负相关(r=-0.317,P>0.05);第二剂次与年份呈正相关(r=0.057,P>0.05);本次研究经过多次拟合后,确定麻类疫苗第一剂次和第二剂次的时间序列模型均符合指数平滑模型,第一剂次[R~2=0.768,Ljung-Box(18)=12.537,P>0.05]和第二剂次时间序列模型[R~2=0.786,Ljung-Box(18)=22.178,P>0.05]皆有效;麻类疫苗第一剂次与第二剂次均满足2─5月随接种数量逐渐上升,在5月出现接种高峰的需求;第一剂次在每年3月、第二剂次每年10月出现接种低谷。结论乌鲁木齐县麻类疫苗接种数量有一定的变化规律,基本符合指数平滑模型的要求,建立模型预测每月的接种数量比较可靠,后期制定疫苗使用计划中可考虑应用。
Objective To explore the time trend of vaccination of bovine vaccine in Urumqi County of Xinjiang and to provide reference for vaccine distribution management. Methods Spss 21.0 software was used for statistical analysis. Seasonal decomposition and model establishment were performed by time series analysis. The test level α = 0.05, P <0.05 was considered invalid. Results The first dose of bovine vaccine in Urumqi County from 2009 to 2014 was negatively correlated with the year (r = -0.317, P> 0.05). The second dose was positively correlated with the year (r = 0.057, P> 0.05) After multiple fitting studies, the time series models of the first dose and the second dose of the bast vaccine were determined to be exponential smoothing models. The first dose [R ~ 2 = 0.768, Ljung-Box (18) = 12.537 , P> 0.05] and the second dose time series model [R ~ 2 = 0.786, Ljung-Box (18) = 22.178, P> 0.05] From May to May, the number of inoculations gradually rose and the demand for peak vaccination appeared in May; the first dose was in March each year and the second dose was vaccinated in October each year. Conclusion The quantity of bovine vaccines in Urumqi County has a certain variation, which basically meets the requirements of exponential smoothing model. It is more reliable to establish a model to estimate the monthly vaccination amount, and can be considered in the formulation plan of vaccine afterwards.