一轮以房地产和“铁公基”为主导的复苏似乎又会重演,这却恰恰预示着经济向错误的方向着陆。去年年中以来,有关软着陆的预测从未停歇过。可7月重要经济数据出台,普遍期盼的“软着陆”又成泡影:9.2%的规模以上工业增加值,比6月的9.5%又有下滑,为3年来的最低点,若按打七折为GDP增长率的经验算法,GDP增速已进入了“6”区间。遥遥无期的触底意味着什么?是否意味着经济将处于长期的寻底状态,至少从刺激措施迟迟不能见效看是如此。以进出口为例,7月出口总额同比增长1%,为六个月以来的最低水平,6月份的增幅还为11.3%。今年年初,出口退税规模空前,4月份的出口退税同比增长了近40%,5 A revival led by real estate and “iron-based” seems to be repeating itself, which just indicates that the economy landed in the wrong direction. Since mid-last year, the prediction of a soft landing has never stopped. Can be released in July of important economic data, generally expected “soft landing ” and bubble: 9.2% of the above-scale industrial added value, down from 9.5% in June, the lowest point in three years, if the press Fight for 30% of the GDP growth rate of the experience of the algorithm, GDP growth has entered the “6 ” range. What does it mean to reach the bottom in the foreseeable future? Does this mean that the economy will be in long-term bottoming out, at least not until the stimulus measures are not yet effective? Taking import and export as an example, total exports in July increased by 1% year-on-year, the lowest level in six months, with an increase of 11.3% in June. Earlier this year, the scale of export tax rebates was unprecedented. In April, the export tax rebate increased by nearly 40% year on year. 5