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信贷扩张是产生经济周期的主要动因。在“去凯恩斯主义”的背景下,奥地利学派商业周期理论(ABCT)为解释这一困惑提供了新的视角。文中理论部分指出银行信贷扩张使得高资本密集型行业挤压了低资本密集型行业的投资,导致产业结构失衡。实证部分根据投入产出表将行业分为上面两类,采用PVAR模型检验银行贷款对两类行业的投资、负债、研发支出和利润的影响。实证结果一方面验证了理论分析结论,另一方面为中国当前供给侧结构性改革的“三去一降一补”目标提供了经验证据。
Credit expansion is the main driver of the business cycle. In the context of Keynesianism, the Austrian School Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) provides a new perspective for explaining this confusion. The theoretical part of the paper points out that the expansion of bank credit has caused the high-capital-intensive industries to squeeze the investment in low-capital-intensive industries, resulting in the imbalance of the industrial structure. The empirical part divides the industries into the above two categories according to the IO table, and uses the PVAR model to test the impact of bank loans on the investments, liabilities, R & D expenditures and profits of the two types of industries. The empirical results validate the conclusions of theoretical analysis on the one hand and provide empirical evidence for the current goal of “three reductions, one reductions and one subsidy” on the structural reform of the supply side in China.