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三江平原是我国最大的淡水沼泽区,近年来降水的减少是导致湿地减少的一个重要的自然因素.别拉洪河是三江平原上比较有代表性的沼泽性河流.以别拉洪水文站的降水序列为例,通过相空间重构,分别计算了序列的关联维、最大Lyapunov指数以及Kolmogorov熵等几个序列特征量.计算表明:三江平原月降水序列中是存在明显的混沌特征的,这为以后建立三江平原月降水的混沌预测模型提供了理论依据.
The Sanjiang Plain is the largest freshwater swamp in China, and the reduction of precipitation in recent years is an important natural factor leading to the decrease of wetlands. The Belajang is a typical swamp river in the Sanjiang Plain. Precipitation sequence is taken as an example, the correlation dimension, the largest Lyapunov exponent and the Kolmogorov entropy of sequences are calculated respectively through phase space reconstruction.The results show that there are obvious chaotic features in the monthly precipitation series of the Sanjiang Plain, It provides the theoretical basis for establishing the chaos prediction model of monthly precipitation in the Sanjiang Plain in the future.