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1978年以来,中国以前所未有的速度和规模进行了三项卓有成效的转型:经济转型、社会转型和环境转型。在中国令人印象深刻的经济转型和减少贫困的背后是经济市场化和持续的制度变迁的故事。改革开放提高了经济参与度和竞争性,从而解放了生产力。制度变迁包含强有力的绩效管理,而这依托地方自主权、干部考核制度,也包括领导层选择的适宜政策和政治管理。在经济转型的同时,中国加速融入世界经济。市场机制的强大功能让中国从封闭的农业经济体一跃成为世界最大的出口国和第二大经济体。中国很好地利用自身劳动力成本较低的比较优势,大量出口劳动密集型产品,发展出口导向性经济。不同寻常的减贫成效在很大程度上说明社会转型的成功。中国贫困率从1981年的84%下降到如今的不到5%。尽管有这样的进步,中国的社会挑战还有许多,其中包括人口老龄化和收入分配的不平等。另外,中国经济高速增长的背后也蕴含着生态环境恶化的风险。传统增长模型即将达到极限,中国若想步入高收入国家行列就必须深化改革。由于中国当前是世界最大的温室气体排放国,它在环境保护方面取得的成绩有着世界意义。在中期,政策制定者关键是应对累积起来的脆弱性,而又不让增长率迅速下降,或放慢正在进行的结构转型。改革的重点包括创新和开放、绿色生产和绿色消费、改革和精简机构。
Since 1978, China has conducted three fruitful transitions with unprecedented speed and scale: economic restructuring, social transformation and environmental restructuring. Behind China’s impressive economic transformation and poverty reduction are the marketization of the economy and the ongoing institutional change. Reform and opening up increased economic participation and competitiveness, thus liberating the productive forces. Institutional changes include strong performance management, which relies on local ownership, cadre assessment systems, and appropriate policy and political management chosen by the leadership. At the same time of economic restructuring, China accelerated its integration into the world economy. The powerful function of the market mechanism has made China jump from a closed agricultural economy to become the world’s largest exporter and the second largest economy. China has made good use of its comparative advantage of lower labor costs, exported a large amount of labor-intensive products and developed export-oriented economy. The unusual effect of poverty reduction explains to a large extent the success of social transformation. The poverty rate in China has dropped from 84% in 1981 to less than 5% nowadays. Despite such progress, there are many social challenges in China, including the aging of population and inequality in income distribution. In addition, the rapid economic growth in China is also behind the risk of deteriorating ecological environment. The traditional growth model is about to reach its limit. If China wants to step into the ranks of high-income countries, it must deepen the reform. As China is currently the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, its achievements in environmental protection have world-wide significance. In the medium term, the key to policy makers is to deal with the cumulative vulnerabilities without a sharp decline in growth rates or a slowdown in the ongoing structural transformation. The reform priorities include innovation and openness, green production and green consumption, reform and streamlining of institutions.