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基于1978-2008年统计数据,采用计量经济分析方法探讨陕西省耕地数量变化与经济发展之间的动态关系。研究结果表明:陕西省耕地面积与人均GDP之间存在长期的均衡关系,但短期内会偏离这种均衡;陕西省经济发展对耕地数量变化的解释水平为10%左右,预测期内不断增强,而耕地数量变化能够解释经济发展的35%以上,但预测期内先增强后减弱。协调耕地保护与经济发展之间的矛盾,应集约利用土地,发展节地型产业和低碳经济,提高耕地占用的经济成本,加大财政强农惠农补贴力度。
Based on the statistical data from 1978 to 2008, the econometric analysis was used to explore the dynamic relationship between the change of cultivated land quantity and economic development in Shaanxi Province. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between cultivated land area and per capita GDP in Shaanxi Province, but this equilibrium will deviate in a short period of time. The economic level of Shaanxi Province accounts for about 10% of the change in cultivated land volume, However, the change in cultivated land quantity can explain more than 35% of the economic development, but the first increase and then decrease in the forecast period. To coordinate the contradiction between the protection of cultivated land and economic development, we should make intensive use of land, develop land-based industries and low-carbon economy, increase the economic costs of land occupation, and increase the subsidies for benefiting farmers by means of strong finance.