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本文通过对1978年到2008年的中国省级面板数据分析后发现,中国经济波动与每五年召开一次的中国共产党全国代表大会密切相关。每次党代会召开前一年,各省名义GDP增速较平时下降约3.3个百分点;而党代会召开后一年,各省名义GDP增速高出平时约2.6个百分点。进一步研究表明,党代会前后的经济波动与政府对官员的监察力度变化有关。党代会召开之前,中央和地方政府对官员的监察力度加强,这会限制地方政府财政支出总量并改变财政支出结构,导致各省固定资产投资和经济增速双双下降。党代会之后,相关压力的减轻使得政府监察力度下降,在晋升激励下,地方政府财政支出总额和偏向于投资建设的财政支出增加,使得经济增速上升。
Based on the analysis of Chinese provincial panel data from 1978 to 2008, this article finds that the fluctuation of China’s economy is closely related to the Chinese National Congress held every five years. In the year before the party congress was held, the nominal GDP of various provinces dropped by about 3.3 percentage points from the normal level. However, one year after the congress was convened, the nominal GDP of various provinces grew at a rate about 2.6 percentage points higher than usual. Further research shows that the economic fluctuations before and after the party congress are related to the changes in government supervision of officials. Prior to the convening of the congress, the supervision by the central and local governments on officials was strengthened, which would limit the total amount of local government expenditure and change the structure of fiscal expenditure, resulting in a drop in investment in both fixed assets and economic growth in the provinces. After the party congress, the reduction of related pressure caused the government supervision to decrease. Under the promotion promotion, the total local government expenditure and the financial expenditure that is more inclined to invest and build increased the economic growth.