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当前,国内铁路工程项目可行性研究阶段,不可预见费传统的计算方式对不同铁路项目的风险环境和特点反映不足,这一点在海外铁路项目中尤为突出,随着海外工程市场的拓展,如何有效地确定不可预见费成为当前急需解决的一个问题。本文以几内亚矿山铁路为例,利用蒙特卡洛方法在概率统计上的优越性,利用头脑风暴法识别出项目存在的风险因素;通过设置评价指标和量纲,对风险因素进行量化、评估得到风险注册表,通过风险矩阵筛选得出关键风险因素;通过专家评估,利用三点估计法量化风险因素对工期与造价的影响,最终得出包含不确定性因素后的几内亚矿山铁路不可预见费及工期。
At present, the feasibility study stage of domestic railway projects, unforeseen costs traditional calculation of the different railway projects risk environment and characteristics of the lack of reflection, which is particularly prominent in overseas railway projects, with the expansion of overseas engineering market, how effective Determining unforeseen costs has become an issue that needs urgent solution. Taking Guinean mine railway as an example, this paper uses Monte Carlo method in probability and statistics superiority, and uses brainstorming method to identify the risk factors of the project. By setting the evaluation index and dimension, the risk factors are quantified and the risk is evaluated Registry, through the risk matrix to filter out the key risk factors; by expert assessment, the use of three-point estimate of the risk factors to quantify the impact of construction time and cost, and finally reached the uncertainty of the Guinean mine railway after the unforeseen costs and duration .