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越浪是造成海堤破坏的主要因素。上海地区三面临海,海堤防御能力直接关系上海城市安全。针对海堤安全问题,以临港地区典型海堤为例,将越浪量作为造成海堤失效的风险因素,利用蒙特卡洛(MC)法计算由于越浪造成的海堤失效概率,计算得到临港大堤在设计使用年限内遭受破坏的概率约为8.78×10~(-7)。结果可为上海市海堤防御评估、海堤设计、使用和维护提供参考依据和借鉴。
The more waves are the main factor causing the seawall to break down. Three areas facing the sea in Shanghai, the seawall defensive capabilities directly related to Shanghai urban safety. Aiming at the safety of seawalls, taking the typical seawalls in the harbor as an example, taking the overrun as the risk factor for the failure of the seawalls, Monte Carlo (MC) method was used to calculate the probability of seawall failures due to overtopping. The probability of the harbor levee being destroyed in the designed service life is about 8.78 × 10 -7. The results can provide a reference and reference for the assessment of the seawall defense in Shanghai, the design, use and maintenance of seawalls.