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地方政府债券正式成为我国地方政府正式融资工具之后,急需评估其风险以便防范。利用改进的KMV模型为度量工具,以北京市的数据为例,测量政府债券的违约风险和安全发债规模,为广大投资者提供理论参考。认为应从地方政府、中央政府、金融机构、社会大众等多角度构建地方政府债券风险防范和控制体系,为地方政府债券在我国的长远发展奠定基础。
After local government bonds officially become the official financing tools of local governments in our country, it is urgent to assess their risks in order to prevent them. Taking the improved KMV model as the measuring tool and the data of Beijing as an example, this paper measures the default risk of government bonds and the size of security bond issuance, which provides theoretical reference for investors. It is believed that the local government bond risk prevention and control system should be constructed from the perspectives of local governments, central government, financial institutions and the general public so as to lay the foundation for the long-term development of local government bonds in China.