一、出口导向与超大国经济的不适性和出口换汇是经济发展的必然抉择(一) 我国经济不宜采用出口导向型贸易发展战略。大国经济具有较小的对外贸易份额。对外贸易份额随国家规模成反比变化,被美国国际经济学家中的后起之秀梅基称为对外贸易份额下降第一规律,即一国的地理疆域越大外贸在该国国民生产总值中所占的份额就越小。造成这一现象的原因有二:一是假如一个区域是弹丸之地,几乎所有的贸易都是对外贸易;但若将整个地球看作一个国家,那也就无外贸可言了。二是运输和分配成本,假如面包分发的最大半径是150公里,那么美国 First, export-oriented and super-large country’s economic discomfort and export exchange swap is an inevitable choice for economic development (a) China’s economy should not adopt export-oriented trade development strategy. Major economies have a small share of foreign trade. The share of foreign trade is inversely proportional to the size of the country, and is cited by the U.S. international economist Maki as the first law of decline in the share of foreign trade. That is, the larger the geographical territory of a country is, the more foreign trade accounts for the country’s GNP. The smaller the share. There are two reasons for this phenomenon: First, if an area is a land of projectiles, almost all trade is foreign trade; but if the entire planet is regarded as a country, there will be no foreign trade at all. The second is transportation and distribution costs. If the maximum radius of bread distribution is 150 kilometers, then the United States