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2016年以来,我国居民消费价格涨幅略有回升,消费领域价格温和上涨;生产者价格降幅有所收窄,生产领域通缩压力阶段性减轻。今年后期,我国猪肉价格仍将维持高位运行态势、M1快速增长、价格改革稳步推进等因素将支撑价格上涨;总需求稳中趋缓、产能严重过剩、粮食丰收等因素将抑制物价上涨。综合考虑多种因素的影响,今年我国物价水平将呈温和上涨态势,不存在发生通货膨胀的可能,预计2016年上半年CPI上涨2.1%,全年上涨2.0%;上半年PPI下降3.9%,全年下降2.5%。建议采取有效措施保持主要农产品价格稳定,加大利用价格杠杆淘汰落后产能力度,推进重点领域价格改革。
Since 2016, the consumer price increase of our country has rebounded slightly and the price of consumption has risen moderately; the price drop of producers has narrowed and the deflationary pressure of production has been reduced stage by stage. In the latter part of this year, the pork price in our country will remain at a high level. The rapid growth of M1 and the steady progress of price reform will support the price rise. The overall demand will slow down steadily and the production capacity will become excessively surplus. The factors such as grain harvest will curb rising prices. Considering the impact of various factors, the price level in China will show a moderate upward trend this year. There is no possibility of inflation. The CPI is expected to rise by 2.1% in the first half of 2016, up 2.0% for the whole year. The PPI for the first half of the year dropped by 3.9% 2.5% decline in the year. It is recommended that effective measures should be taken to keep the prices of main agricultural products stable, increase the use of price leverage to eliminate backward production capacity and promote price reform in key areas.