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寡头强博弈演绎到极致之后,PTA基本面利好的积累已经完成从量变到质变的突破——PTA是我国生产量与消费量最大的化学品之一,具有典型的周期属性。我国PTA行业上一轮景气高点出现在2011年,彼时PTA行业在快速发展的同时保持了不俗的盈利水平。受资金、技术和高利润等多方面因素驱使,大量新增PTA产能相继规划并于2012年集中投放,从此PTA供需失衡严重、盈利跌入深渊。随后PTA行业低迷了长达5年之久,2012年至2017年中旬PTA与其原料PX价差中枢长期徘徊在500元/吨,龙头公司仅能微利,全行业几乎一直保本微利,甚至在负利区间运行。然而,PTA新一轮的景气周期正在人们的期盼中到来。
After the oligopoly strong game deduced to the extreme, PTA fundamentals good accumulation has completed a breakthrough from quantitative change to qualitative change - PTA is China’s largest production and consumption of chemicals, has a typical cyclical properties. China’s PTA industry boom last year appeared in 2011, when the rapid development of PTA industry at the same time maintain a decent profit level. Driven by many factors such as capital, technology and high profitability, a large number of new PTA capacity projects were planned in succession in 2012 and the PTA supply and demand imbalances are serious. Profitability has plunged into the abyss. Subsequent PTA industry downturn for up to 5 years, from mid-2012 to mid-2017 PTA and its raw materials PX spread center long-term hovering at 500 yuan / ton, leading companies can only profit margins, the industry has almost always been a meager profit, and even in the negative range run. However, the new round of PTA business cycle is expected to come.