现在大家都习惯声称即将来临的世纪将属于亚洲。我不愿向任何人泼冷水,可是我对此却表示怀疑。也许把下世纪看作是“全球世纪”会更好些,因为那样可使所有主要参与者都起到互相影响的作用。即将来临的世纪真的是亚洲世纪吗?那么特别是中国在此过程中又将扮演什么样的角色呢?根据统计来进行预测是容易的。但是投资者懂得世上的事情是循环往复的,任何事有起必有伏,上升之后便会下降。要是一厢情愿的投资者只按经济数字去预测,那么下个世纪当然会是亚洲世纪,然而我们也要问问自己,在过去几十年间使亚洲如此兴旺发达的一些关键因素今天是 Now everyone is accustomed to claim that the coming century will belong to Asia. I do not want to pour cold water on anyone, but I doubt it. It may be better to think of the next century as “the global millennium”, because that would enable all the major players to play an influential role in each other. Is the upcoming century truly Asia? So what is the role China will play in this process? It is easy to make predictions based on statistics. However, investors know that things in the world are cyclical. Anything starts and ends, but declines after it rises. If the wishful investors only forecast economic figures, then the next century will certainly be the Asian century. However, we must also ask ourselves some of the key factors that have made Asia so prosperous in the past few decades.