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从源头上控制流感大流行美国研究人员对东南亚郊区采用一种随机流感模拟模式,探索靶向抗病毒预防、隔离检疫和提前预防注射对控制新流感株的有效性。假如基础再生数(R0)低干1.6,模拟系统显示,使用有准备的靶向抗病毒预防就能很好控制疾病。在这种情况下,储备10万到1百万人份的抗病毒药物将足够用于预防和治疗。假如提前预防接种,那么靶向抗病毒预防将有效控制R0为2.1的菌株。联合靶向抗病毒预防、预防接种和隔离检疫就能控制R0为2.4的菌株(Science,2005,309:1083～1087)。
From the source to control the flu pandemic American researchers to adopt a random influenza simulation model for the suburbs of Southeast Asia to explore the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, quarantine and early injection prevention to control new influenza strains. If the number of basal regrowths (R0) is low, 1.6, the simulation system shows that the disease can be well controlled using prepared targeted antiviral prophylaxis. In this case, an estimated 100,000 to 1 million antiviral drugs will be sufficient for prevention and treatment. Targeted antiviral prophylaxis would effectively control strains with R0 of 2.1 if vaccinated in advance. The combination of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, vaccination and quarantine can control strains with a R0 of 2.4 (Science, 2005, 309: 1083-1087).