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为揭示济宁煤矿区地表塌陷积水的时空演变规律,运用遥感与地理信息技术等手段,对煤矿区1984-2013年的塌陷积水面积进行测算,分析了近30年来济宁采煤塌陷积水区的扩展变化情况,并利用Logistic回归建立塌陷积水面积预测模型.研究结果表明:近30年来,随着采矿活动增强,煤矿区塌陷积水面积逐渐扩大,但由于“边沉陷边治理”等原因,从2007年开始塌陷积水面积扩张速度有所减缓;采煤塌陷积水区主要集中在兖州煤田中部和济宁煤田南部,现已逐渐连成一片;预计未来10年内在枯水期地表塌陷积水面积将不会超过52 km2;加强煤矿区塌陷积水面积的测算与塌陷积水区的实时动态监测,可为矿区土地复垦与生态重建提供依据.
In order to reveal the law of temporal and spatial evolution of surface subsidence water in Jining Coal Mine, the area of collapsed water in the coal mine from 1984 to 2013 was calculated by means of remote sensing and geographic information technology. The water area of Jining subsidence And the use of Logistic regression to establish the prediction model of water area of collapse.The results show that in recent 30 years, with the increase of mining activities, the water area of collapse in coal mining area has gradually expanded, but due to " And other reasons, the expansion rate of water area has been slowed down since 2007; the subsidence area of coal mining is mainly concentrated in the central part of Yanzhou Coalfield and the southern part of Jining Coalfield, and has gradually become a single piece. It is estimated that in the next 10 years, The water area will not exceed 52 km2. Calculating the water area of collapse in the coal mining area and real-time dynamic monitoring of the subsidence water area will provide the basis for land reclamation and ecological reconstruction in the mining area.