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以能源综合碳排放系数表示基于低碳的能源消耗结构的变动,在解析降低煤炭消费比例对ESCEC影响原理的基础上,通过构建能源替代计量模型分析降低煤炭消费比例对ESCEC的灵敏度。结果显示,1980—2011年,石油、电力、天然气等可以有效替代煤炭,但这种替代对降低能源综合碳排放系数的贡献率变化较平缓;2011—2020年,煤炭产出弹性不断提高,使得石油、电力、天然气等与煤炭的替代弹性不断下降,导致ESCEC的降低率上升。
Based on the change of low-carbon energy consumption structure based on the integrated carbon emission coefficient of energy, the paper analyzes the influence principle of reducing coal consumption on ESCEC and analyzes the sensitivity of reducing ESCEC to energy consumption by building an energy substitution econometric model. The results show that from 1980 to 2011, oil, electricity and natural gas can effectively replace coal. However, the contribution of such alternative to the reduction of integrated carbon emission from energy sources changes more moderately. From 2011 to 2020, the output elasticity of coal continuously increases, The substituting elasticity of coal, oil, electricity, natural gas and coal is declining, resulting in a decrease in ESCEC.