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本文采用直线回归法,对当地丝光绿蝇越冬幼虫发育起点和有效积温常数进行了研究。建立了丝光绿蝇越冬幼虫各发育历期预测式。应用该预测式,根据当地当年气象资料,预测当地丝光绿蝇越冬幼虫该年度化蛹时间为4月下旬,第一代成蝇发生时间为5月上旬。经现场观察,现场发生与预测时间基本相符。并根据当地历年气象资料,推测当地丝光绿蝇第一代发生期在每年5月中旬左右。
In this paper, linear regression method was used to study the starting point and effective accumulated temperature constants of overwintering larvae in the local Lucilia sericata. A predictive formula for each developmental period of M. glauca overwintering larvae was established. According to the local meteorological data of the current year, the prediction of the overwintering larvae of the local green fly green flies in the end of April and the first generation of adult fly occurs in early May. After field observation, the scene basically coincided with the predicted time. Based on the meteorological data of previous years in the area, it is speculated that the first generation of local Lucilia sericata occurs around mid-May every year.