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目的评估2015年3月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计3月全国总报告事件数和病例数较2月将有所增加。埃博拉出血热疫情输入我国的风险仍然存在,但发生较大规模扩散的可能性极低。近期我国大陆地区仍将继续出现人感染H7N9禽流感散发病例,其他可感染人类的禽流感可能有散发病例报告。随着学校陆续开学,部分地区可能出现流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、风疹及水痘等常见呼吸道传染病的聚集性疫情和食物中毒事件。随着气温升高,南、北方省份流感活动强度会继续下降。麻疹将进入流行季节,疫情持续上升并出现局部暴发流行的风险较高。中东呼吸综合征输入我国的风险依然存在,但发生大规模扩散的可能性极低。结论 2015年3月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,将较2月上升;需关注埃博拉出血热、人禽流感、流行性感冒、麻疹、中东呼吸综合征等传染病疫情引发的公共卫生风险。
Objective To assess the public health emergencies at home and abroad in March 2015 and the need to pay attention to the risks of infectious diseases. Methods According to the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and the monitoring of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was adopted to invite experts from provincial (municipalities and autonomous regions) CDC to participate in the assessment through video conferencing. Results According to the monitoring data of recent infectious diseases and public health emergencies, combined with the previous public health emergencies and the epidemiological characteristics of infectious diseases, the number of reported national cases and the number of cases in March are expected to increase compared with February. The risk of Ebola haemorrhagic fever epidemic entering our country still exists, but there is very little possibility of a larger-scale spread. Recently, mainland China will continue to have human cases of avian influenza (H7N9) avian influenza, and other cases of avian influenza that may infect humans may have been reported. With the gradual opening of schools, there may be epidemic and food poisoning incidents of common respiratory diseases such as influenza, mumps, rubella and chickenpox in some areas. As temperatures rise, the intensity of influenza activity in southern and northern provinces will continue to decline. Measles is about to enter the epidemic season with a higher risk of the epidemic continuing to rise and causing a local outbreak. The risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome entering our country still exists, but there is very little possibility of large-scale spread. Conclusion The epidemic situation of public health emergencies and infectious diseases in our country was similar to the previous years in March 2015 and will rise from February. Ebola haemorrhagic fever, human bird flu, influenza, measles, Middle East respiratory syndrome And other infectious diseases caused by public health risks.