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美国总统大选特朗普胜选,对全球地缘政治、经济和中美关系新格局将产生重大影响。第一,特朗普的收缩策略可能会给中国在亚太地区的发展带来一些空间。虽然美国绝不可能放弃在亚太地区的利益和对其的控制,但整体来说,特朗普的收缩策略对中国利大于弊,给“一带一路”建设带来了发展空间。第二,可以预见美俄两国将有可能加强在经济和政治方面的战略合作,美俄如果联手钳制中国,那么将会给中国带来巨大的地缘政治挑战。第三,基于特朗普上任后可能推出的大规模财政刺激、减税、扩大基建投资和放松金融监管等举措,建议引导中国金融机构特别是开发性金融机构和基础设施建设企业构建有效的中美经贸合作关系。
The victory of the U.S. presidential election by Trump will have a significant impact on the global geopolitical, economic and new Sino-U.S. Relations. First, Trump’s contraction strategy may give China some room for growth in the Asia Pacific region. Although it is impossible for the United States to relinquish its interests and control over the Asia-Pacific region, on the whole, Trump’s strategy of contraction has done more harm to China and brought room for development for the “Belt and Road”. Second, it can be foreseen that the United States and Russia will likely strengthen strategic cooperation in economic and political fields. If the United States and Russia jointly clamp down on China, it will bring tremendous geopolitical challenges to China. Thirdly, based on the possible large-scale fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, investment expansion in infrastructure and relaxation of financial supervision that Trump may take upon his assumption of office, it is advisable to guide China’s financial institutions, especially the development financial institutions and infrastructure construction enterprises, to establish an effective medium- U.S. economic and trade cooperation.