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本文采用动态偏离份额分析法,运用中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)边界地区广西和云南2003-2011年的经济数据,详细考察了总体就业增长情况,以及与就业相关的国家增长效应(NGE)、产业综合效应(IME)和地区竞争效应(CE)。结果显示,边界地区的就业增长并没有像理论预测的那样显著区别于其它地区,而且边界地区自身产业发展差异很大。本文认为国家先期于1992年实施的沿边开放政策以及2000年实施的西部大开发战略提前释放了CAFTA一体化效应对边界地区就业增长的作用,导致一体化效应在边界地区被稀释。此外边界地区各自禀赋条件不同,造成各自的优势产业部门差异很大。
In this paper, the dynamic deviation from the quota analysis, using the economic data of Guangxi and Yunnan from 2003 to 2011 in the border area of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA), examines in detail the overall employment growth and employment-related national growth effect (NGE) , Industrial Integrated Effect (IME) and Regional Competitiveness Effect (CE). The results show that the employment growth in the border areas is not significantly different from the other areas as predicted by the theory, and the development of own industries in the border areas varies greatly. This paper argues that the state's opening-up policy along the border prior to 1992 and the western development strategy implemented in 2000 have released the effect of the CAFTA integration effect on the employment growth in the border area in advance, resulting in the dilution of the integration effect in the border areas. In addition, the respective endowment conditions in the border areas are different, resulting in great differences in their respective advantageous industrial sectors.