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[目的]分析大区域范围内大田尺度上气候变化(主要是温度和降水)对棉蚜发生程度的影响。[方法]基于黄淮海和长江流域1991~2010年50个县棉蚜发生程度的观测资料、长序列气候资料及其他社会经济数据,运用计量经济学模型定量分析了气候变化对棉蚜发生程度的影响。[结果]不同生长阶段温度和降水的变化对棉蚜发生程度的影响差异显著;即使在同一生长阶段,不同区域棉蚜对于温度和降水的反应也不一致。[结论]应该充分考虑不同地域不同时期的气候条件;在摸清棉蚜发生规律的基础上采取合适的措施加以防范,从而保障棉花生产。
[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the influence of climate change (mainly temperature and precipitation) on the degree of occurrence of cotton aphid on a large scale in a large area. [Method] Based on the observed data of long-range climatic data and other socio-economic data of 50 cotton aphids from 1950 to 2010 in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the Yangtze River basin, the econometric model was used to quantitatively analyze the degree of occurrence of cotton aphid influences. [Result] The changes of temperature and precipitation in different growth stages had significant differences on the occurrence degree of cotton aphid. Even in the same growth stage, the responses of cotton aphids in different regions to temperature and precipitation were also inconsistent. [Conclusion] The climatic conditions in different periods and different periods should be fully considered. Appropriate measures should be taken to prevent and prevent the cotton aphid production on the basis of finding the regularity of occurrence of cotton aphid.