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介绍了一种预测液体或固体火箭可靠性的方法。该方法以贝叶斯统计法为基础,并且综合了现有的可靠性预测法。贝叶斯模型为综合各种信息,可靠性预测值的定期修正提供了一套方法。所提供方法简化了可靠性置信区间及达到可靠性目标所需试验次数的计算。
A method to predict the reliability of a liquid or solid rocket is presented. The method is based on Bayesian statistics and combines the existing reliability prediction methods. The Bayesian model provides a set of methods for the periodic correction of a variety of information and reliability predictions. The method provided simplifies the calculation of reliability confidence intervals and the number of tests required to achieve reliability goals.