六十年代以来,美国自得克萨斯至佛罗里达的滨海地区人口显著增多.但是,这些地区也是经常遭受大西洋飓风(相当于太平洋的台风)袭击的地带.为了防止飓风造成的灾害,美国气象局除照旧发布飓风警报以外,从1983年起又开始发布飓风的概率预报.关于概率预报,由于日本也每天发布降雨(雪)的发生率(%),所以其意义已广泛地为人们所了解.概率预报的特点用一句话来概括,大概可以说,就是“内含误差的预报”.在天气预报中,目前还难免带有误差.因此,在利用天气预报时, Since the 1960s, the United States has seen a significant increase in the population of coastal areas from Texas to Florida, but these are also areas frequently hit by hurricanes in the Atlantic (the equivalent of Pacific typhoons). In addition to the hurricane-related disasters, Hurricane warnings, the probability forecast for hurricanes has been released since 1983. With regard to probability forecasting, since Japan also publishes daily rainfall (snow) incidence (%), its significance has been widely understood. Features summed up in one sentence, probably can be said that “the error contains the forecast.” In the weather forecast, it is still inevitable with errors.Therefore, in the use of the weather forecast,