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投资市场的“集体行为”可以通过投资行为扩散特征来描述。有限范围内参与人的决策影响,使投资者之间形成博弈关系;投资市场系统内部因“自主行为”、“模仿行为”等,呈现总体投资状态。演化博弈分析显示:自主行为和模仿行为的成本和收益,决定每一种投资行为的比例,这一比例在一定条件下趋于稳定态。而信息的滞后性使投资者采取行为,并通过相互影响使整体投资市场系统非最优。动力学模型分析显示:平均投资态度对系统中有重要影响,不成熟的投资市场因个体投资者的信息掌握力度、个体投资者的认知能力等因素,更具有模仿投资的特点,并在一定条件下趋于盲目。行业投资政策的制定,须结合行业的实际特征。
Investment market “collective behavior ” can be described by the characteristics of investment behavior diffusion. The influence of decision-making of participants within a limited scope leads to the formation of a game relationship between investors. The internal investment market system presents the overall investment status due to “autonomous behavior ” and “imitation behavior ”. Evolutionary game analysis shows that the costs and benefits of autonomous behavior and imitation behavior determine the proportion of each kind of investment behavior, and this proportion tends to be stable under certain conditions. The lag of information makes investors take actions and make the overall investment market system non-optimal through mutual influence. The dynamic model analysis shows that the average investment attitude has an important influence on the system. The immature investment market has the characteristics of mimicking the investment due to the individual investors ’information grasping ability and the individual investors’ cognition ability, Conditions tend to blind. The formulation of industry investment policies must be based on the actual characteristics of the industry.