春小麦是青海省的主要粮食作物之一,产量虽高,但年际之间波动较大。研究产量与气候因子之间的关系和作出产量预测,对制定农业生产计划和远景规划将有指导意义。本文在学习国内外经验的基础上,以全省春小麦生产为例,采用“图解剩余回归方法”,分析引起产量波动的气候因子和尝试建立省一级的农作物产量预报模式,供讨论参考。 Spring wheat is one of the staple food crops in Qinghai Province. Although the output is high, the annual fluctuation is relatively large. Studying the relationship between production and climatic factors and making production forecasts will be instructive in formulating agricultural production plans and long-term plans. Based on the study of domestic and foreign experiences, taking the production of spring wheat in the province as an example, this paper analyzes the climatic factors that cause the fluctuation of production and tries to establish a forecast model of crop yield at the provincial level by using the “graphic residual regression method” for discussion and reference.