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The crisis of 2008 has shown the unsustainability of the global imbalances centered on theUS-China symbiotic relationship that characterized the previous decade.This has revivedthe so-called growth-rebalancing debate.In particular, the new emerging consensus callsfor a re-orientation of the US economy away from consumption and toward exports, and forpolicy shifts that can help China to reduce its dependence on external demand and inefficientlyhigh rates of capital accumulation.We discuss the economic and political feasibility of theproposed patterns of re-adjustment by focusing on the short-term and long-term trade-offsfaced by the policy-makers.We argue that the rebalancing will be gradual and partialbecause of the costs associated with a radical shift in the growth models adopted by bothcountries.We believe that this scenario will be consistent with a world economy expandingat lower rates than over the past decade.
The crisis of 2008 has shown the unsustainability of the global imbalances centered on theUS-China symbiotic relationship that characterized the previous decade. This has revived the so-called growth-rebalancing debate. In particular, the new emerging consensus calls for a re-orientation of the US economy away from consumption and toward exports, and forpolicy shifts that can help China to reduce its dependence on external demand and inefficientlyhigh rates of capital accumulation. We discuss the economic and political feasibility of theproposed patterns of re-adjustment by focusing on the short- term and long-term trade-offsfaced by the policy-makers.We argue that the rebalancing will be gradual and partialbecause of the costs associated with a radical shift in the growth models adopted by bothcountries. We believe that this scenario will be consistent with a world economy expandingat lower rates than over the past decade.