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航空备件需求预测受多因素综合影响,且影响因素的历史数据是匮乏的。通过对航空备件需求特点的分析,建立影响备件需求的指标体系,结合专家经验和模糊层次分析法,得出影响因素的权重值以及隶属函数,运用模糊综合评判的方法进行预测。通过试验分析,验证了在一定误差范围内,应用该方法对航空备件的需求进行预测的有效性和优越性。
Aviation spare parts demand forecast is affected by many factors, and the historical data of influencing factors are scarce. Through the analysis of the characteristics of aviation spare parts demand, this paper establishes the index system that affects the demand of spare parts. Based on the expert experience and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, the weight value and membership function of influencing factors are obtained, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to forecast. Through the experimental analysis, the validity and superiority of applying this method to predict the demand of aviation spare parts within a certain error range are verified.