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近年来,非现金支付领域不断发展,在经济运行中的作用越发突出。非现金支付是否可以有效地促进实体经济发展,值得研究。本文从理论分析入手,认为非现金支付可以从加速资金周转、畅通经济政策传导四个方面促进实体经济发展。首次利用北京地区2010—2014年的支付结算数据构建计量模型,发现非现金支付对实体经济发展存在促进作用,但在各类支付工具间有所区别。因此,应该针对各类非现金支付工具的应用实际,制定有所区别的引导政策,通过构建科学合理的非现金支付体系更好地促进实体经济发展。
In recent years, the non-cash payment field has been continuously developed and its role in the economic operation has become more prominent. Whether non-cash payment can effectively promote the development of real economy is worth studying. Starting from the theoretical analysis, this paper argues that non-cash payment can promote the development of the real economy in four aspects: speeding up capital turnover and smoothing the transmission of economic policies. For the first time, the econometric model was constructed by using the payment and settlement data from 2010 to 2014 in Beijing. It was found that non-cash payment facilitated the development of the real economy, but there were differences among various payment instruments. Therefore, different types of guidance policies should be formulated in light of the practical application of various non-cash payment instruments, and the real economy should be better promoted through building a scientific and rational non-cash payment system.